April 28, 2024 • 6 minute read

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and an intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, it's understandable that the term “Bougainville” holds little significance for most. Yet, for the approximately 250,000 occupants of Bougainville, it represents a cause célèbre: a decades-long independence struggle rooted in colonialism, corporate greed, and an everlasting quest for self-determination. Situated northeast of Australia in the eastern portion of Papua New Guinea, Bougainville is a viable candidate for statehood– indeed, global scholars will recognize Bougainville as the next most likely nation-state to receive UN member status–but a deeper dive reveals a complex history foreboding a long journey ahead. 

Jumping Hands and Plumping Pockets (1886-2000)

In an era of swiftly advancing colonial borders, the remote Bougainville and Buka Islands (collectively referred to as Bougainville) were acquired by the German Empire through an 1886 agreement with the United Kingdom. German administration of the islands was limited, although a Marist mission did succeed in converting most of their inhabitants to Catholicism. During World War 1, German New Guinea was occupied by Australia, which earned the right to govern through an ensuing League of Nations mandate. After incorporation into the Australian Territory of Papua and New Guinea in 1949, Bougainville held an independence referendum in 1968 without success. This, however, would turn out to be the first of many concentrated efforts towards establishing an independent state. The next would be in 1975, during the independence of the Territory of Papua New Guinea, when Bougainville islanders motioned for independence but received no recognition from Australia. Bougainville, passed from German to Australian to Papuan hands, continued to labor under hegemony. 

In the years just prior to 1975, Bougainville had also been the center of an industrial expansion driven by interest in its rich copper and gold fields. In 1972, multinational mining conglomerate Rio Tinto constructed a massive mine at Panguna, Bougainville–much to the dismay of local inhabitants. Recent studies conducted by Rio Tinto itself have shone a light on decades of environmental degradation and human rights abuse stemming from Panguna–most notably, the nearly one billion tonnes of waste dumped into an important river delta. The Papuan government of the 70s and 80s, however, could care less: mining at Panguna had accounted for as high as 45% of the country's exports during some years. 

Discontent with mining activities and outside management culminated with the formation of the Bougainville Revolution Army in 1988 and subsequent escalation into a decade-long civil war. In what has been dubbed the “largest conflict in Oceania since WW2”, up to 20,000 civilians were killed–nearly 10% of the islands’ population. Hostilities finally ceased in 1997 after intervention from New Zealand, which facilitated a peace agreement creating a semi-autonomous government and requiring an independence referendum to be conducted by 2020.  

The Referendum and Next Steps (2000-present)

In accordance with the peace agreement, Bougainville held a non-binding independence referendum in 2019. Expectedly, a sweeping majority (98.35%) of islanders voted in favor of independence, and local officials targeted legal independence for 2027. The referendum, while decisive, means nothing until ratification by the Papua New Guinean government. As the United States Institute of Peace reports, the government is wary of other states being emboldened to secede and certainly dismayed by the prospect of losing Bougainville’s rich resource fields. Compromise seems likely, with Papua New Guinea president Marape open to “reaching a settlement” —whether this means independence or another form of semi-autonomy remains to be seen. 

Despite independence remaining a hazy prospect, Bougainville president Ishmael Toroama has begun preparations for realizing statehood. In the modern sense, this has meant seeking international recognition from global powers, applying for UN membership status, and transforming the existing semi-autonomous government into a functional state. As far as international recognition is concerned, Toroama has already received offers from China to finance various infrastructure projects–interestingly, Taiwan also sent a letter of congratulations following the 2019 referendum. Receiving international approval would also benefit Bougainville’s bid for UN membership: under UN law, obtaining membership requires 9 of the 15 members of the UN Security Council and ALL P5 nations to vote in affirmation, followed by a ⅔ majority in the General Assembly. 

Implications of Bougainville Statehood

Bougainvilleans and Papuans alike are no stranger to their history: the legacy of the Civil War is a sobering reminder of the consequence of non-compromise. Where serious economic and territorial prospects are concerned, however, there can be no telling how negotiations will unfold. In a broader sense, the very concept of self-determination is at stake, and a peaceful, successful transition of power would send a powerful message worldwide. 

The outcome of the Bougainville question has additional clear-cut implications in the Pacific geopolitical theater. The US Institute of Peace warns that Bougainville’s strategic value both economically–at the intersection of major shipping routes–and militarily–as a suitable location for bases–could attract the attention of China and/or other countries. China’s proven record of debt-trap diplomacy should be a source of concern for Bougainville officials, yet budgetary goals might dictate entering a financial relationship. Whatever happens in the next five years, we can be sure that world powers will be keeping a close watch.